• MMT App
  • Careers
  • Contact
  • French
  • Find an Expert
  • Home
  • Mortgage Prep
  • Buying a Home
  • Renewal
  • Commercial
  • Rates & Lenders
  • More Value
  • Economic Insights
  • Our House Blog
  • MMT App
  • Careers
  • Contact
  • French
  • Find an Expert
  • All
  • COVID-19
  • Finance
  • Housing Market

Published by Sherry Cooper

February 29, 2024

No Recession In Canada, As Q4 GDP Growth Rose 1%.

Still No Recession In Canada Thanks to Huge Influx of Immigrants

Real gross domestic product (GDP) rose a moderate 1.0% (seasonally adjusted annual rate), a tad better than expected and the Q3 contraction of -1.2% was revised to -0.5%. This leaves growth for 2023 at a moderate 1.1%. Monthly data, also released today by Statistics Canada, showed that December came in flat, well below the robust flash estimate, while the January preliminary estate was a strong +0.4% (subject, of course, to revision). The January uptick was driven by the return of Quebec public servants and a mild winter. 

The fourth quarter growth was fuelled by higher oil exports and was moderated by a significant decline in business investment. Housing investment declined again in Q4–a sixth decline in the last seven quarters. Despite increased activity in Q4 new residential construction and renovations, it was more than offset by a large drop in home ownership transfer costs, reflecting the weakening resale market across Canada. Single-family units and apartments led the rise in new construction, as all provinces and territories, except Prince Edward Island, post a rise in housing starts. 

Investment in non-residential structures fell sharply, as did spending on machinery and equipment, especially on aircraft and other transportation equipment. Even government spending declined.

Bottom Line
This is the last major economic release before the Bank of Canada meets again on March 6. The central bank will hold interest rates steady at next week’s meeting, and while some are suggesting the first rate cut this cycle will be as soon as the April confab, the consensus remains at June. With the uptick in growth in Q4, there is no urgency for the Bank to ease. 

Policymakers will wait for their favourite core inflation measures to fall within the 1%-to-3% target band. They know that GDP per capita is falling and that mortgage renewals at higher interest rates will dampen household discretionary income. That’s why a June rate cut is widely expected. 

Please Note: The source of this article is from SherryCooper.com/category/articles/

Share this:
Categories: Finance

Recommended articles.

View More

In Conversation with Dr. Sherry Cooper (September 2025)

September 17, 2025

Dr. Sherry Cooper joined Dominion Lending Centres and DLCG Mortgage Group President, Eddy Cocciollo, for In Conversation to discuss the latest updates from the Bank of Canada as of September 17, 2025.

Read More

The Bank of Canada Lowers the Policy Rate By 25 Basis Points to 2.5%

September 17, 2025

Bank of Canada Lowers Policy Rate to 2.5% Today, the Bank of Canada lowered the overnight policy rate by 25 bps to 2.5% as was widely expected. Following yesterday’s better-than-expected […]

Read More

Headline Inflation Rises Less Than Expected, Giving the Green Light to BoC Easing

September 16, 2025

Canadian Inflation More Muted Than Expected, Giving the Green Light for BoC Easing Tomorrow The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.9% on a year-over-year basis in August, up from a 1.7% increase […]

Read More

Canadian Housing Market Turns the Corner in August

September 15, 2025

Canadian Home Sales Post Best August In Four Years Today’s release of the August housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed good news on the housing front. The […]

Read More

Employment data for August came in weaker than expected in both Canada and the US

September 5, 2025

Weak August Jobs Report in Canada Bodes Well for a BoC Rate Cut Today’s Labour Force Survey for August was weaker than expected, indicating an excess supply in the labour […]

Read More
  • Find an Expert
  • Home
  • Mortgage Prep
  • Buying a Home
  • Renewal
  • Commercial
  • Rates & Lenders
  • More Value
  • Economic Insights
  • Our House Blog
  • MMT App
  • Careers
  • Contact
  • French
  • Find an Expert

© 2025 Dominion Lending Centres Inc. All rights reserved. Privacy Policy Terms & Conditions