• MMT App
  • Careers
  • Contact
  • French
  • Find an Expert
  • Home
  • Mortgage Prep
  • Buying a Home
  • Refinancing
  • Commercial
  • Rates & Lenders
  • More Value
  • Economic Insights
  • Our House Blog
  • MMT App
  • Careers
  • Contact
  • French
  • Find an Expert
  • All
  • COVID-19
  • Finance
  • Housing Market

Published by Sherry Cooper

May 6, 2022

Canadian Labour Market Tightens As Unemployment Rate Hits New Low.

Labour Market Bumps Up Against Capacity Constraints

Job vacancies abound in many sectors, yet employers have trouble finding workers to fill those jobs and retaining workers with so many options available. As the jobless rate falls to new record lows, net new employment has slowed. This is not dissimilar to the housing market, where supply is insufficient to meet demand. Home sales are slowing in response to very low inventories, which are now compounded by rising mortgage rates.

Statistics Canada released the April Labour Force Survey this morning, reporting a slowdown in job gains to 15,300, a mere fraction of the  72,500 jump last month and the whopping 337,000 surge in February.  The April figure was way below the 40,000 rise anticipated by economists.

After reaching a record low of 5.3% in March, the unemployment rate edged down 0.1 percentage points to a series-low of 5.2% last month, compared to the 5.7% level posted before the pandemic. There is considerable excess demand for workers as the economy failed to produce any new growth in labour supply. In April, hours worked declined 1.9%, reflecting a jump in Covid-related absences and disability.

Increases in employment in professional, scientific and technical services and public administration were offset by construction and retail trade declines. These two sectors are reporting significant labour shortages. The federal government hopes to double the housing supply over the next decade, but to do so, homebuilders need many more construction workers.

More people worked in the Atlantic region and Alberta, while employment fell in Quebec. At the national level, employment gains among core-aged women aged 25 to 54 were offset by a decrease among core-age men.

Average hourly wages were up 3.3% (+$0.99 to $31.06) year over year, similar to the growth observed in March (+$1.03; +3.4%). Since consumer prices have risen 6.7% year-over-year, wages are not keeping up with inflation.

Many signs have pointed to an increasingly tight labour market in recent months. In addition to increases in full-time work, one aspect of this tightening has been a decrease in part-time workers reporting that they would prefer full-time employment. The involuntary part-time employment rate fell to 15.7% in April 2022, the lowest level on record. The involuntary part-time rate had been elevated over the first 18 months of the pandemic and peaked at 26.5% in August 2020, as many workers faced challenges securing full-time employment.

There are signs that wage inflation could accelerate in response to continued high job vacancy rates and tightening labour supply.

Bottom Line

Mounting inflation pressure point to another 50 basis point hike in the overnight rate when the Bank of Canada meets again on June 1. Governor Mackem has stated that a full half-point increase will be in play. That will take the policy rate up to 1.5%, compared to 1.75% immediately before the pandemic. The war in Ukraine has exacerbated supply disruptions and markedly increased key commodity prices. Canada’s economy remains strong–the strongest in the G-7–owing to the relatively large commodity sector. Markets expect the overnight rate to hit close to 3% by yearend. However, the Bank will adjust its plans based on incoming data. Preliminary evidence suggests that housing activity weakened in April due to rising mortgage rates and insufficient supply.

Please Note: The source of this article is from SherryCooper.com/category/articles/

Share this:
Categories: Finance

Recommended articles.

View More

Bank of Canada Holds The Overnight Policy Rate Steady at 5% For the Third Consecutive Meeting

December 6, 2023

The Bank of Canada Held Rates Steady and Took A More Neutral Tone It was widely expected that the Bank of Canada would maintain its key policy rate at 5% […]

Read More

Will the Bank of Canada diverge from the US Fed on rate cuts?

December 4, 2023

US ‘drives the bus’ on long-term interest rates – but BoC likely to push ahead with cuts, suggests economist Decision makers at the Bank of Canada could be weighing up […]

Read More

Canadian Employment Gains Stronger than Expected in November, While Unemployment Rose and Hours Worked Fell

December 1, 2023

Jobless Rates Hits 22-Month High–Led by Losses in Finance and Real Estate EmploymentToday’s StatsCanada Labour Force Survey for November was a mixed bag. Total employment gains were stronger than expected. […]

Read More

Q3 GDP Weaker Than Expected Paving The Way For Future Rate Cuts

November 30, 2023

The Table Is Set For Rate Cuts In 2024 The Canadian economy weakened far more than expected in the third quarter, down 1.1% annually. However, the Q2 figures were revised […]

Read More

Canadian Inflation Fell to 3.1% (y/y) In October, Ensuring the BoC Holds Rates Steady

November 21, 2023

Good News On the Inflation Front Suggests Policy Rates Have Peaked Today’s inflation report showed a continued improvement, mainly due to falling year-over-year (y/y) gasoline prices. The October Consumer Price […]

Read More
  • Find an Expert
  • Home
  • Mortgage Prep
  • Buying a Home
  • Refinancing
  • Commercial
  • Rates & Lenders
  • More Value
  • Economic Insights
  • Our House Blog
  • MMT App
  • Careers
  • Contact
  • French
  • Find an Expert

© 2023 Dominion Lending Centres Inc. All rights reserved. Privacy Policy Terms & Conditions