Canadian Housing Might Be Turning A Corner As Sales Picked Up in June and Prices Flattened..

Home Sales Rose As Prices Stabilized–Housing Market is Turning a Corner

The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems rose 2.8% on a month-over-month basis in June 2025, building on the 3.5% gain recorded in May.

Over the past two months, the recovery in sales activity has been led overwhelmingly by the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), where transactions, although remaining historically low, have rebounded by a cumulative 17.3% since April.

“At the national level, June was pretty close to a carbon copy of May, with sales up about 3% on a month-over-month basis and prices once again holding steady,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “It’s another month of data suggesting the anticipated rebound in Canadian housing markets may have only been delayed by a few months, following a chaotic start to the year; although with the latest 35% tariff threat, we’re not out of the woods yet.”

New Listings 

New supply declined by 2.9% month-over-month in June. With sales up and new listings down, the national sales-to-new-listings ratio rose to 50.1%, up from 47.3% in May. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.9%, with readings between 45% and 65% generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions.

There were 206,435 properties listed for sale on Canadian MLS® Systems at the end of June 2025, up 11.4% year-over-year and just 1% below the long-term average for that time of the year.

“Most housing markets continued to turn a corner in June, although market conditions still vary considerably depending on where you are in Canada,” said Valérie Paquin, CREA Chair. “If the spring market was mostly held back by economic uncertainty, barring any further big shocks, that delayed activity could very likely surface this summer and into the fall.”

Home Prices

The National Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was little changed (-0.2%) from May to June 2025, following three straight month-over-month declines of closer to 1% in February, March, and April.

The non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS® HPI was down 3.7% compared to June 2024. Based on the extent to which prices fell off in the second half of 2024, expect year-over-year declines to shrink in the months ahead.

Bottom Line

There is every indication that the housing markets in the GTA and the GVA are beginning to perk up following a disappointing Spring market. Sales generally increased in May and June, and new listings fell last month. The price data suggest a flattening in prices. Tariff uncertainty has swamped the psychology of many potential buyers, who are reticent to make a move. The latest 35% tariff threat from Washington doesn’t help.

And while the central bank was expected to lower interest rates further, it took a pass at the prior two meetings and is likely to do so again on July 30th when it meets. This morning’s CPI release for June showed a continued rise in core inflation, effectively ruling out a BoC rate cut. 

Moreover, longer-term interest rates are market-driven and have been trending higher since March, when tariff sabre-rattling began in earnest. Canada’s five-year government bond yield broke above its key 3% support level in the past week. This could well trigger another rise in fixed mortgage rates. Furthermore, the Canadian two-year yield is 2.83%, which is above the Bank’s overnight policy rate of 2.75%. This suggests that monetary easing in Canada may be over for this cycle, provided the economy remains resilient. Of course, given the TACO issue (an acronym that stands for Trump Always Chickens Out), any forecast bears more than the usual uncertainty.